国際教養学部AO入試 reference, autonomous weapons

Pentagon seeks 'ethicist' to oversee military artificial intelligence

Guardian  September 7, 2019

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/sep/07/pentagon-military-artificial-intelligence-ethicist

GRE writing, a memo from the director of student housing at Buckingham College - unfinished -

Material:

The following appeared in a memo from the director of student housing at Buckingham College.

"To serve the housing needs of our students, Buckingham College should build a number of new dormitories. Buckingham's enrollment is growing and, based on current trends, will double over the next 50 years, thus making existing dormitory space inadequate. Moreover, the average rent for an apartment in our town has risen in recent years. Consequently, students will find it increasingly difficult to afford off-campus housing. Finally, attractive new dormitories would make prospective students more likely to enroll at Buckingham."

Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.

Part of Response (Body Paragraphs):

The first evidence necessary to evaluate the argument that Buckingham College should build a number of new dormitories is the data that confirms the prediction that Buckingham’s enrollment will double over the next 50 years. Specifically, increase-decrease rates of the Buckingham College over the past decades are at least necessary. If the change has been lasting long enough to expect the rapid increase for another 50 years, the prediction cannot be dismissed. However, if the same kind of sudden alteration followed by a plateau or slump happened in the past, then more cautious watch of the trend might be needed. Also, the enrollment number prediction should be made with overall demography change in the areas that prospective students live in in mind. 50 years is a long span of time, which includes more than 30-years for uncertain numbers of unborn college-bounds. If there are  rapid increases of birth rates in the areas supported by some facts that ensure the trend will last for the nest 50 years such as development plans in the areas would strengthen the prediction.

Next, whether the increase of students who choose to live in the dorms is in proportion to the increase of enrolment or not should be confirmed. In other words, if the kind of students that tend to prefer to live in the dormitory is on the increase, the addition of dormitory complex is to be considered seriously. If the subset that enters the dormitory is a fixed number of subgroup of the entire students at college, like international students whose acceptance is limited under the present college policy, the proportional increase of dorm-choosers cannot be expected. Also, the trend of the college lifestyle and economic situation would be elements that should be investigated. If affluent students who would like to live in an apartment off campus are the increasing component of the entire college population, new dorm rooms would become redundant, while the number of working students who do not live with their parents are the major part of the new students, and the economic situation underscores the prediction that this trend continues, the argument will be strengthened.

The next verification would be on the assumption that students would find difficulty in finding off-campus housing. Confirmation of the absence of the plans to build reasonable apartment complex for students turning negative will strengthen the argument. Also, trends and forecast on rents around the university should be taken into consideration to see if the apartment rents in the area are likely to remain the same level in the next 50 years. If the real estate is on the downward trend in the area, the argument will become less convincing.

The assumption that attractive new dormitories would make prospective students more likely to enroll at Buckingham should be taken with a grain of salt. If there are surveys providing data related to the causal relation between new dormitories and enrollment rates, analysis should be made to prove it. There are many elements in choosing a university to attend, and housing may not be on the top of the prospective students’ priority list.

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夕方、近所で一番賢くて元気なカラスが少しはりきって鳴くので外を見ると夏らしい陰影のはっきりした夕暮れだ。
数週間前、長雨が急に止んだ夕方に同じカラスが同じ鳴き方をもっと派手にして回った時は
20～30分後に昼間に戻ったように明るくなり、そして金色の夕暮れがやってきた。
雨雲の残る空の端から光が戻り始めたのを見てカラスは騒いだのだろう。
あの時ほどのはしゃぎようではないが
あんなに鳴くならよほど美しいのだろう、きちんとみようと思って近くの土手に行くと完全な半円の虹が立っていた。
雲が多いので透明感がないけれども七色が区別できる大きな虹で右下が二重になっている。
川をまたいで視界の端から端までかかった虹の下の橋を電車がゆっくり渡って行き、散歩していた人たちが立ち止まって見ている。
賢いカラスの声はし続けていたが姿は見えなかった。
しばらくして虹が薄れだしたので出たついでに買い物に行くことにして土手を降り路地を抜け環七の歩道橋を上がると
真上の街灯に賢いカラスが来て止まった。
話かけるとじっと見下ろしてくるので立ち止まり、下で手すりにもたれて虹の切れ端を見ていた。
少しするとカラスが近くの電線に飛び移り虹と反対の方向を向いて何かに呼びかけるように３ｘ２回鳴いた。
振り返ると荘厳なばら色の夕焼けだった。