GRE writing, a memo from the director of student housing at Buckingham College - unfinished -

Material:

The following appeared in a memo from the director of student housing at Buckingham College.

"To serve the housing needs of our students, Buckingham College should build a number of new dormitories. Buckingham's enrollment is growing and, based on current trends, will double over the next 50 years, thus making existing dormitory space inadequate. Moreover, the average rent for an apartment in our town has risen in recent years. Consequently, students will find it increasingly difficult to afford off-campus housing. Finally, attractive new dormitories would make prospective students more likely to enroll at Buckingham."

Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.

Part of Response (Body Paragraphs):

The first evidence necessary to evaluate the argument that Buckingham College should build a number of new dormitories is the data that confirms the prediction that Buckingham’s enrollment will double over the next 50 years. Specifically, increase-decrease rates of the Buckingham College over the past decades are at least necessary. If the change has been lasting long enough to expect the rapid increase for another 50 years, the prediction cannot be dismissed. However, if the same kind of sudden alteration followed by a plateau or slump happened in the past, then more cautious watch of the trend might be needed. Also, the enrollment number prediction should be made with overall demography change in the areas that prospective students live in in mind. 50 years is a long span of time, which includes more than 30-years for uncertain numbers of unborn college-bounds. If there are  rapid increases of birth rates in the areas supported by some facts that ensure the trend will last for the nest 50 years such as development plans in the areas would strengthen the prediction.

Next, whether the increase of students who choose to live in the dorms is in proportion to the increase of enrolment or not should be confirmed. In other words, if the kind of students that tend to prefer to live in the dormitory is on the increase, the addition of dormitory complex is to be considered seriously. If the subset that enters the dormitory is a fixed number of subgroup of the entire students at college, like international students whose acceptance is limited under the present college policy, the proportional increase of dorm-choosers cannot be expected. Also, the trend of the college lifestyle and economic situation would be elements that should be investigated. If affluent students who would like to live in an apartment off campus are the increasing component of the entire college population, new dorm rooms would become redundant, while the number of working students who do not live with their parents are the major part of the new students, and the economic situation underscores the prediction that this trend continues, the argument will be strengthened.

The next verification would be on the assumption that students would find difficulty in finding off-campus housing. Confirmation of the absence of the plans to build reasonable apartment complex for students turning negative will strengthen the argument. Also, trends and forecast on rents around the university should be taken into consideration to see if the apartment rents in the area are likely to remain the same level in the next 50 years. If the real estate is on the downward trend in the area, the argument will become less convincing.

The assumption that attractive new dormitories would make prospective students more likely to enroll at Buckingham should be taken with a grain of salt. If there are surveys providing data related to the causal relation between new dormitories and enrollment rates, analysis should be made to prove it. There are many elements in choosing a university to attend, and housing may not be on the top of the prospective students’ priority list.